Monday, June 8, 2009

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics: Credit Card Delinquencies



The mainstream media has, for over a year now, consistently and repeatedly published news stories about various aspects of the US economy with "jump out the window" dire headlines. A frequent allegation (in this recession and those that preceeded it) is that "The Media" is talking down the economy. But if one reads into the body of these articles, the actual financial data is never quite so attention grabbing.

As an example, the headline of an Associated Press article this morning reads, "Credit Card Delinquencies jump 11 Percent."

11 percent: whoa! That is bad.

But it's only in the body of the article that the reader learns this headline was generated from the fact that delinquencies rose from 1.19% in the first three months of 2008 to a (presumably pulse pounding) 1.32% this year.....

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